Friday 22 June 2018

Orch's Weekend Wagers - Friday June 22

Each Friday I will throw out my brightest bets for the weekend ahead.

I'll dive head on into horse racing around the country, and try and stay on top of the mainstream sporting action all around the globe.

I'll even throw out my best multi bet for Saturday sport only, so if you want to have a weekend wager, I will hopefully make it a winning one.

Horsies


FLEMINGTON - Saturday marks the return of Nature Strip to the races after the best part of seven weeks off. The talented sprinter is now in the hands of master trainer Darren Weir, who said this week he "couldn't be happier" with the way the gelding has presented for his first run since a disappointing fourth in the Euclase Stakes in South Australia.


Will enjoy getting back to the wide open spaces of the Flemington track where he's run and won once before in the Inglis Dash, and with a change of jockey (Damian Lane takes over from Craig Williams) should be winning here.

My Bet - Back Weir, Drink Beer. Nature Strip WIN @ $2.05 POWERPLAY

DOOMBEN - The Tatts Tiara is the final Group 1 of the season and some kind of field has been assembled for Saturday's flagship race.


I like the look of two in this race. Champagne Cuddles will most likely start favourite and rightly so after two hard-earned thirds in both the Stradbroke Handicap and Kingsford-Smith Cup. Will appreciate the favourable barrier draw, and starting from gate four will no doubt ensure she stays closer to the leaders throughout the 1350m journey. Finds herself back against the girls this time around and is too consistent not to be there or thereabouts at the finish.

Siren's Fury is the other one that caught my eye after a barnstorming finish in the Group 2 Dane Ripper two weeks ago. Meets the winner of that race - Invincibella - two kgs better off after storming home from the back of the field to finish fourth by a length. A brilliant each-way chance and although she likes to get back, may be close enough from gate 2 to cause a boil over.

My Bets - Champagne Cuddles WIN @ $5.50
Siren's Fury EACHWAY @ $17.00 and $4.60

RANDWICK - I like Bandipur in the get out here, with the James Cummings trained colt forgoing an opportunity to take on Nature Strip in Melbourne to instead target this race.


Has seven career starts for three wins and three seconds with it's only miss coming in it's first ever race at the end of 2016. A noted wet weather performer (2/2 on soft tracks), Bandipur should handle a possible heavy track fairly well.

Has drawn wide (gate 11), but that may work into jockey Tye Angland's hands as the best part of the track should be wider late in the day. She Knows is the obvious threat, but will be backing Bandipur to continue it's six race pattern of 1-2-1-2-1-2.

My Bet - Bandipur WIN @ $3.40

Sport


TENNIS (Halle) - Borna Coric is a rising star of the men's tennis circuit. The young Croatian notched up his 100th tour win in a second round victory at Halle last night (Thursday), but will face a much sterner test  in the quarterfinals tonight when he runs into Italian journeyman Andreas Seppi

Coric doesn't have the best record on grass (only two career wins before Halle in 2018), while Seppi loves this time of year. He won one of only three career titles on grass (albeit way back in 2011) and is fresh of a destructive 6-2 6-4 victory over German Florian Mayer - who earlier in the tournament accounted for 8th seed Richard Gasquet in straight sets.

Seppi (ranked 50th) leads Coric (34th) head-to-head 1-0, with that victory coming over five sets at Wimbledon in 2015.

Coric is undoubtedly a player of the future, but Seppi will fancy his chances against the 21-year-old on a surface he rates as his favourite to play on.

My Bet - Andreas Seppi WIN @ $2.82

WORLD CUP - Our attention turns to World Cup action between Germany and Sweden for hopefully another safe bet of the weekend.

The Germans were caught off guard by a dangerous, counter-attacking Mexico in their first Group F encounter, going behind 1-0 early and then failing to overhaul the deficit despite throwing the kitchen sink at the Mexican defence.

The world number one side will be looking to respond in their next contest, and I believe a match-up with the Swedes - ranked 24th in the world - will see them regain their World Cup swagger.

A loss will most likely see Germany bow out of the World Cup, so not only will they be pushing for victory, I think their endeavour and intensity will rise a few notches, meaning more chances and more goals, especially early.

My Bet - Germany HT/FT @ $2.30

Saturday Multi - 


Fabergino WIN (Belmont R4) ---> Tradesman WIN (Doomben R6) ---> Belgium WIN (World Cup) ---> Hawthorn 40+ WIN (AFL)

TOTAL = $5.01


God speed and goodluck!


Note - All markets are offered by Sportsbet and p
lease gamble responsibly.

Sunday 17 June 2018

In Case You Missed It - Monday June 18

Phil's Major Meltdown

Shinnecock Hills played host to the 118th US Open last week and boy did it hand out some punishment.

Defending champion Brooks Koepka held his nerve across four windswept days to win the event, marking the first time a player has gone back-to-back at the US Open since 1989.


But while the best golfers in the world were made to look like your average weekend hackers (Koepka's winning score was +1), this major will be remembered for the polarising play of Phil Mickelson.


During his third round, and on the par-4 13th hole, Mickelson found himself in a precarious position.


He had a downhill, left to right putt on a lightning fast surface, with a miss sure to result in his ball plunging back towards the despairing situation that awaited him at the front of the green.


Mickelson struck his ball and narrowly missed the hole. What happened next was as alarming as it was incredible (see below).




As you can see, Mickelson broke one of the fundamental rules of golf - you cannot play a shot while your ball is still moving.

In doing so, Mickelson blatantly cheated, and he admitted afterwards that he knew the rule and did it on purpose.


“It was meant to take advantage of the rules as best as you can. In that situation, I was just going back and forth. I’d gladly take the two shots over continuing that display,” he told FOX after his round ended.
It was amazing he avoided disqualification, with a separate rules fine print ensuring he remained in the field for the remainder for the event.

But where does this rank on the scale of sporting blunders? Was it a simple misdemeanour, solved with a slap on the wrist? Or has Mickelson tarnished his credentials as one of golf's most gifted of all-time?


He admitted it was a deliberate and preconceived action, but the fact it was made rashly, and in a split-second moment, lends me to think more leniently. I believe it was done out of frustration and due to him already languishing down the leaderboard at the US Open. 

Would he have done it if he were in contention? No. Does that make it right? Also no.

Either way I think Phil will wish he had that moment again. But is he sorry he did it? I don't think so.


Socceroos cop VAR-Y average decision

The Socceroo's fifth World Cup campaign got off to controversial start on Saturday night, with a dubious penalty decision ensuring France prevailed 2-1 in their Group C clash.


In a confusing passage of play, French striker Antoine Griezmann was awarded a second-half penalty after he was ruled to have been fouled in the box by Australian defender Josh Risdon.


The main reason the decision was contentious - referee Andres Kunha awarded the dot shot minutes after the actual incident occurred after watching a replay on the side of the pitch - marking the first time in World Cup history a penalty had been awarded using the VAR or Video Assistant Referee.


Griezmann calmly put Les Bleus ahead 1-0, but football fans worldwide were already incensed. 


The VAR was introduced to rule on four potentially match-altering scenarios - penalties, goals, red cards or cases of mistaken identity - and is only called for on the referees recommendation.


My first thought is that sport should be fair. So I am happy to introduce any means possible to ensure the contests I love are ruled fairly more often, and with that in mind VAR should be embraced. I would rather have a few moments of uncertainty in order to get the right decision, than live with a wrong call purely because people are impatient or simply willing to take the good with the bad.

Upon review however, it seems the decision to award a penalty was wrong. My limited knowledge of the exact wording of the rules means I have borrowed expert opinion to determine whether or not it was actually a penalty.

Listen to SBS's Craig Foster as he discusses the decision below, and then make up your mind on these two counts -


1) Was it a penalty?

2) Does the VAR have a place in the game?


(courtesy of SBS)

Ponga in line for State of Origin debut

Newcastle Knights wonderkid Kalyn Ponga looks set to make his State of Origin debut after being named in Queensland's 18-man squad for Game Two at ANZ Stadium on Sunday.

Ponga has set the NRL alight this season with several best-on-ground performances for a Newcastle side languishing in the bottom half of the ladder, and if included will most likely come off the bench, filling the role Anthony Milford failed to make his own in Game One. 

The 20-year-old fullback has earned rave reviews from several high profile players in the NRL this season, with many pundits saying his X-Factor qualities will make him a Queensland star for years to come.

Queensland lacked spark and speed in Game One in Melbourne, so the addition of Ponga, coupled with the expected return of Billy Slater is sure to make NSW a little restless.

The question must be asked though, what type of role can we expect from Ponga?

The utility bench position is often under utilised in SOO, and can fail to make the anticipated impact when used too late in matches.

My hope is Kevvie Walters unleashes Ponga late in the first half by shifting Hunt to hooker and giving Andrew McCullough a rest. Let Ponga play as a roaming second receiver and attack the edges of the ruck with his speed and illusiveness, and utilise his ball playing ability with the likes of Inglis and Slater outside him.

But how else can the Maroons make the most of the young mans supreme talents? 

I'd love to hear your thoughts as QLD desperately try to keep the series alive.

Queensland Squad for SOO2
Jai Arrow, Will Chambers, Gavin Cooper, Dane Gagai, Tim Glasby, Coen Hess, Valentine Holmes, Ben Hunt, Greg Inglis, Felise Kaufusi, Andrew McCullough, Josh McGuire, Cameron Munster, Dylan Napa, Josh Papalii, Kalyn Ponga, Billy Slater, Jarrod Wallace